Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MKR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 927.836782 1059.534934 1210.210921 1396.894061 1624.127816 1894.556979 2.245030e+03
2024-10-27 713.103795 869.915869 1066.507079 1336.324354 1705.656813 2207.130288 2.964966e+03
2024-11-03 643.064147 817.595353 1049.573736 1390.435651 1896.879768 2654.688749 3.947242e+03
2024-11-10 583.441567 766.656249 1021.974991 1419.101147 2052.467647 3087.020776 5.067671e+03
2024-11-17 535.503995 722.663208 993.771911 1436.078974 2186.084991 3511.560951 6.342707e+03
2024-11-24 487.908804 672.368679 947.908288 1415.186748 2248.977028 3825.834778 7.543920e+03
2024-12-01 459.456021 646.554037 934.836823 1443.569929 2401.375681 4351.243111 9.498383e+03
2024-12-08 439.786868 631.534459 936.061242 1495.155326 2606.973367 5053.315530 1.237749e+04
2024-12-15 417.046074 609.055640 921.844353 1515.846587 2754.943422 5679.749738 1.555737e+04
2024-12-22 391.467939 579.461475 892.041211 1502.276393 2827.026092 6148.485938 1.865844e+04
2024-12-29 375.535346 564.211558 885.143130 1531.492321 3000.408961 6955.863231 2.403327e+04
2025-01-05 350.991403 532.418125 845.602145 1489.362946 2997.826825 7263.630182 2.759461e+04
2025-01-12 328.648991 503.718833 810.804828 1456.325997 3021.259048 7700.607823 3.280390e+04
2025-01-19 305.165088 471.518834 766.996603 1399.210951 2974.257213 7904.285010 3.719373e+04
2025-01-26 297.980643 467.213231 774.755152 1454.637182 3237.463562 9334.547492 5.411493e+04
2025-02-02 288.444379 457.886445 771.846781 1485.734226 3444.096581 10706.518394 7.674467e+04
2025-02-09 278.261112 446.555621 763.799303 1503.595838 3618.483185 12086.856011 1.083407e+05
2025-02-16 264.900506 428.411754 740.442810 1481.439660 3664.696483 12927.950646 1.395333e+05
2025-02-23 257.617948 421.109709 738.466800 1511.601356 3889.848776 14879.141889 2.180772e+05
2025-03-02 252.976066 418.438967 745.771778 1566.485091 4219.409020 17799.445841 4.015838e+05
2025-03-09 245.775072 410.320294 740.750761 1588.507135 4441.950882 20378.370742 7.148800e+05
2025-03-16 236.158793 396.879354 723.102615 1574.062896 4524.424226 22127.488940 1.154619e+06
2025-03-23 230.656615 391.203722 721.973590 1605.164820 4799.784733 25822.335514 2.806821e+06